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Why Google Search will NOT rule the Universe
Today may very well be looked back upon as the first day that marked the
beginning of the end of Google's upward ascent.
How so? Google aims for Universal Search domination in its just announced proclamation that no need to go
anywhere else but Google.com for anything and everything: Images, Maps, Books,
Video, and News…
But, Google may find itself facing universal unease with the perhaps
soon to be unrecognizable "everyone's favorite garge band."
As is the Google standard, the sweeping makeover of the entire Google $150
billion market cap search machine is presented by Google as purely in the
"user's" best interest. The cheeriest Google ambassador of all, Marissa Meyers,
had the announcement honors, and she acknowledged herself!:
Back in 2001, Eric asked for a brainstorm of a few "splashy" ideas in search. A
designer and product manager at the time, I made a few mockups - one of which
was for 'universal search.' It was a sample search results page for Britney
Spears that, in addition to web results, also had news, images, and groups
results right on the same page.
Well six years and undoubtedly millions in Google stock dividends later, Marissa
got to show Eric what she is made of, big time:
That mockup and early observations were the motivation behind the universal
search effort we announced earlier today. And while that Britney Spears mockup
was the start of Google's universal search vision, it was instantly obvious that
this would be one of the biggest architectural, ranking, and interface
challenges we would face at Google. Over several years, with the help of more
than 100 people, we've built the infrastructure, search algorithms, and
presentation mechanisms to provide what we see as just the first step in the
evolution toward universal search. Today, we're making that first step available
on google.com by launching the new architecture and using it to blend content
from Images, Maps, Books, Video, and News into our web results.
For public facing Marissa, all is in the name of the vaunted user experience:
This proliferation of tools, while useful, has outgrown the old model of search.
We want to help you find the very best answer, even if you don't know where to
look.
Google co-founder Sergey Brin, however, is more sanguine. My how things have
changed since Brin's happy go lucky, student days at Stanford University.
Brin then: Struggling, bachelor researcher in training with a noble search
cause.
Brin now: Mega rich, newlywed high flying corporate exec with a mercenary
search ambition.
Google has its origins in an academic prototype built by Brin, in
collaboration with fellow student Larry Page.
The goal of Brin and Page at the time was to build a large scale search
engine WITH NO ADVERTISING!:
Google co-founder Sergey Brin, however, is more sanguine. My how things have
changed since Brin's happy go lucky, student days at Stanford University.
Brin then: Struggling, bachelor researcher in training with a noble search
cause.
The predominant business model for commercial search engines is advertising.
The goals of the advertising business model do not always correspond to
providing quality search to users.
We expect that advertising funded search engines will be inherently biased
towards the advertisers and away from the needs of the consumers.
Brin and Page warned "Since it is very difficult even for experts to evaluate
search engines, search engine bias is particularly insidious":
It could be argued from the consumer point of view that the better the search
engine is, the fewer advertisements will be needed for the consumer to find what
they want. This of course erodes the advertising supported business model of the
existing search engines. We believe the issue of advertising causes enough mixed
incentives that it is crucial to have a competitive search engine that is
transparent and in the academic realm.
Brin and Page have certainly not lived up to their promise of search
engine transparency: Google is the biggest, blackest box of them
all.
Brin and Page have also conveniently forgotten their disdain for an
advertising fueled search model. In fact, with Universal Search, advertising
gets even more universal!
This is the first major revamp of the site and its underlying architecture in
several years, said Google co-founder Sergey Brin. The work began about two
years ago and more than half of the company's search efforts were devoted to it,
he told reporters after the event, adding that the site will continue to evolve.
The changes will expose to more people some "underutilized" Google services,
such as Book Search and Video search, and they will help boost Google's already
huge market share, Brin said.
"Our data says we not only are the best (search engine) but we're widening
the gap," Brin said.
Marissa chimed in with three cheers for (more) advertising:
Google eventually will have ads featuring more than just text: some will
include video and display, Mayer said in remarks to reporters afterward. "That
door has always been open," she said. "We don't have a particular timeline in
place."
No matter the timetable, from out of the Universal Search gate, Google has lost
its pristine groundings at Google.com.
PREDICTION: The new Universal Search Google will meet the fate of the
now infamous company-threatening New Coke fiasco.
Just as Coca-Cola used millions of dollars worth of market research to justify
turning its back on the 100 year old strong secret Coca Cola formula for success
and ended up back peddling and drowning in New Coke tears, the new Google.com
will regret it ever fiddled with the magic that was the unadorned, unimaginative
Google.com.
Wikipedia: New Coke was the unofficial name
of the sweeter formulation introduced in 1985 by The Coca-Cola Company to
replace its flagship soft drink, Coca-Cola or Coke. Properly speaking, it had no
separate name of its own, but was simply the new version of Coke, until 1992
when it was renamed Coca-Cola II. Public reaction to the
change was devastating, and the new cola quickly entered the pantheon of major
marketing flops.
The new Google.com will flop as well, as least in the grand scheme of
Brin and company for worldwide search domination.
Already, the new Google.com requires users to unnaturally reverse trained
behaviors in vertical navigation by placing the tabbed options in the awkward
very upper left, seemingly hoping that the users will ignore them and retrain
themselves for the ultimate one box of the world: Google.com pure.
First page search results are a hodge podge of differing formats retrieved
from diverse data sets, long gone is the founding principal guaranteeing the
"ten most relevant pages of the World Wide Web."
Once the new flashy advertising kicks in, fugetaboutit, as Om Malik is fond
of saying!
Today may very well be looked back upon as the first day that marked
the beginning of the end of Google's upward ascent.
Will we see a downward spiral in Google's fortunes? NO.
But, contrary to the universal bows to the believed Google Universal
Search power, Google has finally met its competition, the original
Google.com.
Donna Bogatin (ZDNet News)
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